Systematic review and meta-analysis on predictors of prognosis in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders: An overview of current evidence and a call for prospective research and open access to datasets

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) have heterogeneous outcomes. If we could predict individual outcome and identify predictors of outcome, we could personalize and optimize treatment and care. Recent research showed that recovery rates tend to stabilize early in the course of disease. Short- to medium- term treatment goals are most relevant for clinical practice. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify predictors of outcome ≤1 year in prospective studies of patients with SSD. For our meta-analysis risk of bias was assessed with the QUIPS tool. RESULTS: 178 studies were included for analysis. Our systematic review and meta-analysis showed that the chance of symptomatic remission was lower in males, and in patients with longer duration of untreated psychosis, more symptoms, worse global functioning, more previous hospital admissions and worse treatment adherence. The chance of readmission was higher for patients with more previous admissions. The chance of functional improvement was lower in patients with worse functioning at baseline. For other proposed predictors of outcome, like age at onset and depressive symptoms, limited to no evidence was found. DISCUSSION: This study illuminates predictors of outcome of SSD. Level of functioning at baseline was the best predictor of all investigated outcomes. Furthermore, we found no evidence for many predictors proposed in original research. Possible reasons for this include the lack of prospective research, between-study heterogeneity and incomplete reporting. We therefore recommend open access to datasets and analysis scripts, enabling other researchers to reanalyze and pool the data

Semantic and Acoustic Markers in Schizophrenia-Spectrum Disorders:A Combinatory Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Speech is a promising marker to aid diagnosis of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, as it reflects symptoms like thought disorder and negative symptoms. Previous approaches made use of different domains of speech for diagnostic classification, including features like coherence (semantic) and form (acoustic). However, an examination of the added value of each domain when combined is lacking as of yet. Here, we investigate the acoustic and semantic domains separately and combined. STUDY DESIGN: Using semi-structured interviews, speech of 94 subjects with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (SSD) and 73 healthy controls (HC) was recorded. Acoustic features were extracted using a standardized feature-set, and transcribed interviews were used to calculate semantic word similarity using word2vec. Random forest classifiers were trained for each domain. A third classifier was used to combine features from both domains; 10-fold cross-validation was used for each model. RESULTS: The acoustic random forest classifier achieved 81% accuracy classifying SSD and HC, while the semantic domain classifier reached an accuracy of 80%. Joining features from the two domains, the combined classifier reached 85% accuracy, significantly improving on separate domain classifiers. For the combined classifier, top features were fragmented speech from the acoustic domain and variance of similarity from the semantic domain. CONCLUSIONS: Both semantic and acoustic analyses of speech achieved ~80% accuracy in classifying SSD from HC. We replicate earlier findings per domain, additionally showing that combining these features significantly improves classification performance. Feature importance and accuracy in combined classification indicate that the domains measure different, complementing aspects of speech.</p

Active Selection of Classification Features

Some data analysis applications comprise datasets, where explanatory variables are expensive or tedious to acquire, but auxiliary data are readily available and might help to construct an insightful training set. An example is neuroimaging research on mental disorders, specifically learning a diagnosis/prognosis model based on variables derived from expensive Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans, which often requires large sample sizes. Auxiliary data, such as demographics, might help in selecting a smaller sample that comprises the individuals with the most informative MRI scans. In active learning literature, this problem has not yet been studied, despite promising results in related problem settings that concern the selection of instances or instance-feature pairs. Therefore, we formulate this complementary problem of Active Selection of Classification Features (ASCF): Given a primary task, which requires to learn a model f: x-> y to explain/predict the relationship between an expensive-to-acquire set of variables x and a class label y. Then, the ASCF-task is to use a set of readily available selection variables z to select these instances, that will improve the primary task's performance most when acquiring their expensive features z and including them to the primary training set. We propose two utility-based approaches for this problem, and evaluate their performance on three public real-world benchmark datasets. In addition, we illustrate the use of these approaches to efficiently acquire MRI scans in the context of neuroimaging research on mental disorders, based on a simulated study design with real MRI data.Comment: Accepted for publication at the 19th Intelligent Data Analysis Symposium, 2021. The final authenticated publication will be made available online at springer.co

Revealing the impact of psychiatric comorbidities on treatment outcome in early psychosis using counterfactual model explanation

INTRODUCTION: Psychiatric comorbidities have a significant impact on the course of illness in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. To accurately predict outcomes for individual patients using computerized prognostic models, it is essential to consider these comorbidities and their influence. METHODS: In our study, we utilized a multi-modal deep learning architecture to forecast symptomatic remission, focusing on a multicenter sample of patients with first-episode psychosis from the OPTiMiSE study. Additionally, we introduced a counterfactual model explanation technique to examine how scores on the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) affected the likelihood of remission, both at the group level and for individual patients. RESULTS: Our findings at the group level revealed that most comorbidities had a negative association with remission. Among them, current and recurrent depressive disorders consistently exerted the greatest negative impact on the probability of remission across patients. However, we made an interesting observation: current suicidality within the past month and substance abuse within the past 12 months were associated with an increased chance of remission in patients. We found a high degree of variability among patients at the individual level. Through hierarchical clustering analysis, we identified two subgroups: one in which comorbidities had a relatively limited effect on remission (approximately 45% of patients), and another in which comorbidities more strongly influenced remission. By incorporating comorbidities into individualized prognostic prediction models, we determined which specific comorbidities had the greatest impact on remission at both the group level and for individual patients. DISCUSSION: These results highlight the importance of identifying and including relevant comorbidities in prediction models, providing valuable insights for improving the treatment and prognosis of patients with psychotic disorders. Furthermore, they open avenues for further research into the efficacy of treating these comorbidities to enhance overall patient outcomes

Contributing factors to advanced brain aging in depression and anxiety disorders

Depression and anxiety are common and often comorbid mental health disorders that represent risk factors for aging-related conditions. Brain aging has shown to be more advanced in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). Here, we extend prior work by investigating multivariate brain aging in patients with MDD, anxiety disorders, or both, and examine which factors contribute to older-appearing brains. Adults aged 18–57 years from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety underwent structural MRI. A pretrained brain-age prediction model based on >2000 samples from the ENIGMA consortium was applied to obtain brain-predicted age differences (brain PAD, predicted brain age minus chronological age) in 65 controls and 220 patients with current MDD and/or anxiety. Brain-PAD estimates were associated with clinical, somatic, lifestyle, and biological factors. After correcting for antidepressant use, brain PAD was significantly higher in MDD (+2.78 years, Cohen’s d = 0.25, 95% CI −0.10-0.60) and anxiety patients (+2.91 years, Cohen’s d = 0.27, 95% CI −0.08-0.61), compared with controls. There were no significant associations with lifestyle or biological stress systems. A multivariable model indicated unique contributions of higher severity of somatic depression symptoms (b = 4.21 years per unit increase on average sum score) and antidepressant use (−2.53 years) to brain PAD. Advanced brain aging in patients with MDD and anxiety was most strongly associated with somatic depressive symptomatology. We also present clinically relevant evidence for a potential neuroprotective antidepressant effect on the brain-PAD metric that requires follow-up in future research

Individualized prediction of three- and six-year outcomes of psychosis in a longitudinal multicenter study:a machine learning approach

Schizophrenia and related disorders have heterogeneous outcomes. Individualized prediction of long-term outcomes may be helpful in improving treatment decisions. Utilizing extensive baseline data of 523 patients with a psychotic disorder and variable illness duration, we predicted symptomatic and global outcomes at 3-year and 6-year follow-ups. We classified outcomes as (1) symptomatic: in remission or not in remission, and (2) global outcome, using the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale, divided into good (GAF &gt;= 65) and poor (GAF &lt; 65). Aiming for a robust and interpretable prediction model, we employed a linear support vector machine and recursive feature elimination within a nested cross-validation design to obtain a lean set of predictors. Generalization to out-of-study samples was estimated using leave-one-site-out cross-validation. Prediction accuracies were above chance and ranged from 62.2% to 64.7% (symptomatic outcome), and 63.5-67.6% (global outcome). Leave-one-site-out cross-validation demonstrated the robustness of our models, with a minor drop in predictive accuracies of 2.3% on average. Important predictors included GAF scores, psychotic symptoms, quality of life, antipsychotics use, psychosocial needs, and depressive symptoms. These robust, albeit modestly accurate, long-term prognostic predictions based on lean predictor sets indicate the potential of machine learning models complementing clinical judgment and decision-making. Future model development may benefit from studies scoping patient's and clinicians' needs in prognostication.</p

Does having a twin-brother make for a bigger brain?

Objective: Brain volume of boys is larger than that of girls by ∼10%. Prenatal exposure to testosterone has been suggested in the masculinization of the brain. For example, in litter-bearing mammals intrauterine position increases prenatal testosterone exposure through adjacent male fetuses, resulting in masculinization of brain morphology. Design: The influence of intrauterine presence of a male co-twin on masculinization of human brain volume was studied in 9-year old twins. Methods: Magnetic resonance imaging brain scans, current testosterone, and estradiol levels were acquired from four groups of dizygotic (DZ) twins: boys from same-sex twin-pairs (SSM), boys from opposite-sex twin-pairs (OSM), girls from opposite-sex twin-pairs (OSF), and girls from same-sex twin-pairs (SSF; n=119 individuals). Data on total brain, cerebellum, gray and white matter volumes were examined. Results: Irrespective of their own sex, children with a male co-twin as compared to children with a female co-twin had larger total brain (+2.5%) and cerebellum (+5.5%) volumes. SSM, purportedly exposed to the highest prenatal testosterone levels, were found to have the largest volumes, followed by OSM, OSF and SSF children. Birth weight partly explained the effect on brain volumes. Current testosterone and estradiol levels did not account for the volumetric brain differences. However, the effects observed in children did not replicate in adult twins. Conclusions: Our study indicates that sharing the uterus with a DZ twin brother increases total brain volume in 9-year olds. The effect may be transient and limited to a critical period in childhood. © 2009 European Society of Endocrinology

The YOUth cohort study: MRI protocol and test-retest reliability in adults

The YOUth cohort study is a unique longitudinal study on brain development in the general population. As part of the YOUth study, 2000 children will be included at 8, 9 or 10 years of age and planned to return every three years during adolescence. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) brain scans are collected, including structural T1-weighted imaging, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), resting-state functional MRI and task-based functional MRI. Here, we provide a comprehensive report of the MR acquisition in YOUth Child & Adolescent including the test-retest reliability of brain measures derived from each type of scan. To measure test-retest reliability, 17 adults were scanned twice with a week between sessions using the full YOUth MRI protocol. Intraclass correlation coefficients were calculated to quantify reliability. Global brain measures derived from structural T1-weighted and DWI scans were reliable. Resting-state functional connectivity was moderately reliable, as well as functional brain measures for both the inhibition task (stop versus go) and the emotion task (face versus house). Our results complement previous studies by presenting reliability results of regional brain measures collected with different MRI modalities. YOUth facilitates data sharing and aims for reliable and high-quality data. Here we show that using the state-of-the art YOUth MRI protocol brain measures can be estimated reliably

Heterogeneity of morphometric similarity networks in health and schizophrenia

INTRODUCTION: Morphometric similarity is a recently developed neuroimaging phenotype of inter-regional connectivity by quantifying the similarity of a region to other regions based on multiple MRI parameters. Altered average morphometric similarity has been reported in psychotic disorders at the group level, with considerable heterogeneity across individuals. We used normative modeling to address cross-sectional and longitudinal inter-individual heterogeneity of morphometric similarity in health and schizophrenia. METHODS: Morphometric similarity for 62 cortical regions was obtained from baseline and follow-up T1-weighted scans of healthy individuals and patients with chronic schizophrenia. Cortical regions were classified into seven predefined brain functional networks. Using Bayesian Linear Regression and taking into account age, sex, image quality and scanner, we trained and validated normative models in healthy controls from eleven datasets (n = 4310). Individual deviations from the norm (z-scores) in morphometric similarity were computed for each participant for each network and region at both timepoints. A z-score ≧ than 1.96 was considered supra-normal and a z-score ≦ -1.96 infra-normal. As a longitudinal metric, we calculated the change over time of the total number of infra- or supra-normal regions per participant. RESULTS: At baseline, patients with schizophrenia had decreased morphometric similarity of the default mode network and increased morphometric similarity of the somatomotor network when compared with healthy controls. The percentage of patients with infra- or supra-normal values for any region at baseline and follow-up was low (<6%) and did not differ from healthy controls. Mean intra-group changes over time in the total number of infra- or supra-normal regions were small in schizophrenia and healthy control groups (<1) and there were no significant between-group differences. CONCLUSIONS: In a case-control setting, a decrease of morphometric similarity within the default mode network may be a robust finding implicated in schizophrenia. However, normative modeling suggests that significant reductions and changes over time of regional morphometric similarity are evident only in a minority of patients